How does China’s ‘no first use’ nuclear proposal align with its growing nuclear capabilities?



China is aggressively advocating a global commitment to ‘no first use’ (NFU) nuclear policy, even as it rapidly expands its own nuclear arsenal. The proposal aims to counter criticism of China’s growing military capabilities and assert a moral high ground. Global arms control Discussions, according to the Financial Times.
Suggestions and criticism
A United Nations Security Council In Geneva, China proposed a treaty or declaration to commit all permanent members to an NFU policy. This policy dictates that a country will only use nuclear weapons if attacked by another nuclear power. China has criticized the United States for its nuclear deterrence strategies, accusing Washington of violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) with its nuclear sharing arrangement and nuclear umbrella over allies.
Rapid nuclear build-up
Beijing’s call for the NFU is seen by many as a strategic move to deflect criticism of its own massive nuclear expansion. The Pentagon estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal will exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, a dramatic increase from current numbers. China is building missile silos and increasing its fleet of nuclear-capable submarines, increasing its ability to launch nuclear strikes at short notice.
International skepticism and global backlash
The US and its allies have expressed skepticism about China’s NFU proposal. Washington has questioned the sincerity of the initiative because of China’s rapid and opaque weapons development. A State Department spokesman criticized China’s attempt to shift focus away from its refusal to engage in meaningful arms control talks.
Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute noted that the United States would not support China’s proposal because of the need for a flexible nuclear response option. Similarly, the UK and France, with their relatively weak conventional forces, consider the ability to respond with nuclear weapons to be important.
RussiaIts response cautioned that any NFU agreement would need to be considered alongside broader military and strategic factors. The Moscow Doctrine allows for nuclear first use if state security is threatened, and recent statements indicate a possible nuclear threat in the Ukraine conflict.
Despite these challenges, China’s push for the NFU is resonating with many countries concerned about nuclear threats from Russia and North Korea. David Santoro of the Pacific Forum noted that while global attention is on Russia and North Korea, China’s diplomatic efforts are progressing, allowing it to expand its arsenal with less backlash and controversy, according to the Financial Times.





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